Friday 3 October 2014

NHL: Yahoo Fantasy Draft Strategy!

Hey folks; I decided to run through a few yahoo mock drafts today with my NHL fantasy team.  With my draft style, it looks like the classic Center, goalie, goalie, center strategy is going to be my best bet.  I have tried variations of this style which includes:

C, G, C, G  
or
G,C,C,G

Any of these styles is great, and is often dependent on your opponents and the position you are selecting in.  We have 8 guys, and a lot of them are going to be tempted by the big name forwards right off the hop.  With that in mind, I will probably take a shot at Tuuka Rask right off the bat.  Ideally, I like to choose in the middle somewhere so I can pick up Getzlaf in the first round, and then grab a solid goalie in round two.  I have scouted my opponents well and I believe that I will be able to go for a center first, and still get a solid second goalie in round 4.  I was looking to do something like this.

1. Getzlaf
2. Rask or Quick
3. Pavelski or Seguin
4. Corey Crawford or Ben Bishop

I believe this strategy will give me the best shot at winning.  However, I have been doing some research and if you are weak at drafting in the later rounds, I would suggest going for a goalie in round 2 and then another goalie in round 5.  You can likely pick up Marc- Andre Fleury or Anti Niemmi in rounds 5-6.  Do not wait any longer than that though, as you may be stuck with a goalie from a weaker team like Vancouver or Nashville.  Both teams have solid tenders, but they will not be fantasy studs this year.  When drafting defenseman, be attentive for alternative options.  Many forwards will get you more points, and good defenseman can be found late in the draft.  For example: Girardi is 308 and Seabrook is somewhere around 160.  Do your research and load up on forwards and goaltenders ASAP.  If the defense are going quickly, try to pick up some guys who get big minutes on good teams.  Often guys like Paul Martin, Dan Hamhuis, and Chris Phillips are overlooked simply because they are not "big name" guys.  These guys will get a lot of playing time, and generally put up solid numbers every year.  Big name Defenseman like Doughty and Weber only put up about 20 points more than an average D-man.  Be cautious when seeking those highly sought after D.  Be smart, do your homework and you should be on your way to a solid season.

SLEEPER PICK ALERT:
Ehrhoff - Pittsburgh
Nichushkin - Anaheim
Palat - Tampa Bay


Friday 26 September 2014

NHL: San Jose Sharks

The San Jose Sharks come into the 2014-15 season with a nearly identical roster from last year.  Despite the lack of movement this off season, the team has a lot of questions still left unanswered.  For starters, who is going to be captain this year?  With big Joe Thorton losing his captaincy this off season, the team is currently left without a leader.  I have come to the conclusion that  Joe Pavelski is the best bet to take over as captain.  He is a great skater and plays a dangerous two way game.  He has exploded offensively recently, picking up 41 goals last season.  If Pavelski does not take over the reigns, it seems like Logan Couture is the only other viable option.  Couture is only 25, but has already shown his maturity and leadership on this dynamic Shark roster.  Whether it be Pavelski or Couture wearing the "C"; it will not matter.  The team is beginning to turn the pages into a new era of hockey in San Jose.  Given the aging core of the team, it looks as if they want to start fresh.  Veterans like Joe Thorton and Patrick Marleau will still be around, but their appears to be a change of the guard in San Jose.

I believe the Sharks will possess great depth at all forward positions, but they simply do not have all the pieces in place to pull out a championship.  For starters, the Sharks goal tending has been mediocre at best for nearly 10 seasons.  Sure, every year or two they will have some consistency; However, I do not believe that Antti Niemi is good enough to compete with the best.  He is a solid goalie, but the West is a nearly impossible conference to dominate with average goaltending.

The Sharks defense is not as deep as they would like either.  They do have two outstanding guys in Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic.  This is assuming the coaching staff plays Burns as a defenseman this season.  He has been bouncing from wing to defense for some time now.  After this top pair, the back end really drops off for the Sharks.  Losing Dan Boyle this off season could prove to be the demise for the Sharks back end.  Without Boyle, they have nobody who can quarter back the Power-play.  The experience and poise he brought to the team is not something that will be easily replaced.

When everything is said and done, the Sharks will probably have a great regular season record.  However, playoffs are a different story..  Joe Thorton and Patrick Marleau have a bad reputation in the playoffs, and their time to change that perspective is limited.  I expect a huge effort, but it will be tough for them to stay consistent in the meat grinder which is the Western conference.



NHL: Power Rankings

Hey everyone.  This is my list for power rankings entering this season.  I know nearly everyone will disagree somewhat, but I am sticking by these picks!

1. Los Angeles Kings:  The Kings have proven to be a team that can turn it on down the stretch.  They are one of the deepest teams up front.  Youngsters Toffoli and Pearson are creating some great chemistry with Jeff Carter, which makes all 3 of the Kings' top lines extremely dangerous.  Very few teams have the luxury of this depth.  Combine that with Johnathan Quick, and stellar defense; You have a team built for success.

2. Boston Bruins:  The Bruins are quite possibly the best defensive team in the league.  They always bring great centerman, and physical defense to the table.  Tuuka Rask will put up great numbers once again playing behind the likes of Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci and Zdeno Chara.   These guys will be crucial to the teams' overall success.  Don't forget about newcomers Rielly Smith and Carol Soderberg, though.  Both these guys will be looking to follow up last year with another great season.  With these two in the mix, the Bruins will have a very deep roster.

3. Anaheim Ducks:  The Ducks are looking a little better than last year.  I believe adding Kesler will help round out the offence a little more.  Now the team can hopefully lighten the load for Getzlaf and Perry.  With the added depth, expect the teams youngsters to improve drastically.  With Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler; the team has four very dangerous players in the prime of their careers.  If they can find security in goal, they will put up some great numbers this season.

4. St. Louis Blues:  The Blues have been my pick to win a cup for the past several years.  They have  depth in every position that can grind the opposition down.  If the pieces fall into place offensively, the Blues will be very dangerous.  Vladamir Tarasenko started to look dangerous offensively late last season, and Jaden Schwartz is still showing signs of development.  Adding Stasny will only boost the team up in the standings.  I guess it does not hurt to have Shattenkirk, Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester on the back end either.

5. Colorado Avalanche: The Avalanche really turned it on down the stretch last season.  They did not have the success they wanted in the post season, but we have to remember that the entire team is still very young.  Matt Duchene, Nathan Mckinnon and Gabriel Landeskog are still developing.  To have this kind of success so soon is startling, and they will continue to improve.  Adding Jarome Iginla should help the young forwards develop quicker.

6. Pittsburgh Penguins:  The Penguins are a big question mark for me when it comes to the playoffs.  Crosby and Fleury are so inconsistent in big games.  On top of that, Crosby and Malkin have reported injuries entering pre-season. To mane thins worse, Letang is coming off of a serious stroke from last season.  The talent is there, but the team will have to face a lot of adversity if they want to succeed.

7. Chicago Blackhawks: The Hawks are still one of the powerhouses in the West, but they do lack some depth compared to the other Western teams.  Don't get me wrong, they are a very deep and skilled team.  However, the conference is strong and the Blackhawks are no longer the top dogs in the West.  Key pieces like Toews and Kane will ensure the teams stays competitive for years to come.

8. New York Rangers:  The Rangers made it clear that they are a competitor in this league last season.  They battled hard all playoff long, and Henrik Lundqvist proved that he is an elite goaltender once again.  They still have key pieces in place, including King Henry, Rick Nash and Ryan McDonagh.  Losing Brad Richards to the Blackhawks could prove to be an issue later on this season if they cannot keep up offensively.

9. San Jose Sharks:  The Sharks are one of those teams that always seem to be in the mix.  They usually tear up the regular season, but flounder come playoff time.  I rate them in the top ten because the roster is very similar to last season, and I believe that Pavelski and Couture are ready to take on control of the team.  Guys like Joe Thorton and Patrick Marleau will still be there as well, which adds some serious depth for the Sharks offense.

10. Tampa Bay:  The Lightning are not an overly dangerous team apart from a few select players.  However, they do have Stamkos who is quite possibly the best scorer in the league.  He should be healthy to start the season and will likely start potting goals right off the hop.  They have some depth as well, with the likes of Ondrej Palat, Valterri Flippula.  I expect Ben Bishop to be steady in goal again this year, and he is the main reason why I am comfortable putting Tampa in my top ten.

Wednesday 24 September 2014

NHL: Reemergence of Two Way Forwards

It has been a long time since the era of the tough guy.  However, the two way game has never been more important than in the modern day NHL.  Offense and point production will always be huge, but advanced statistics have shown us the benefit of having stellar two way players.  All the elite rosters around the league have a few guys on the team who are willing to bring it defensively.  I have created a short list of all the greatest two way forwards from around the league.

Patrice Bergeron: The "second line" center for the Bruins tops my charts on this list.  Last season, he held the title for most face-off wins.  Most of these draws are on shifts where he is expected to shut down the oppositions top line.  Sure, Boston has a good defense core; However, Bergeron rarely gets the chance to play a purely offensive style.  Even while shutting down the opposition, he managed to put up 62 points last season.  He was also second in the league with a plus / minus rating of +38, only beat out by teammate David Krejci.

Marian Hossa: Hossa has found a home playing with some great talent in Chicago.  His style is based purely around puck possession.  He has phenomenal hands, which he uses to create turnovers and take away shooting lines from the opposition.  When he has the puck, he turns into a nightmare for defenders.  He puts the defender on his back and literally skates around looking for openings.  He draws a lot of penalties and allows his teammates to find open spaces.  This big Slovakian winger put up 30 goals, 30 assists and finished the regular season as a +28 skater.  His two way game is unmatched, and I believe he is crucial to the success of any team he plays on.

Pavel Datsyuk: Datsyuk is quite possibly the most dangerous player on this list simply because he has the smoothest set of hands in the league today.  His career is packed with highlight reel goals which most NHL players can only dream about.  He has been a cornerstone on the Red Wings for many years, and has had a lot of success with the team.  He has won the Selke and Lady Byng awards multiple times.  He also had his name engraved on Stanley's cup twice, in 2002 and 2008 with his fellow Red Wing teammates.  His offence has been tailing off the last couple years with age and lack of surrounding talent. He is still nearly a point per game guy, but I am anticipating that these numbers will further tail off this upcoming season.  I anticipate 50-60 points from the future Hall of Famer, and at least a couple highlight reel moves to add to his portfolio.

David Backes: Backes is the captain of the Blues, and has made quite the name for himself in his last few seasons.  I chose him for this list because he plays a very well rounded style.  However, what sets him apart is his "old school" hockey mentality.  He is an extremely competitive player who never quits, even when the whistle blows.  It is not uncommon for him to engage players during and after plays.  He is a hit machine, and drops the gloves fairly frequently.  When he is not engaged in the extracurricular, he is usually grinding down opponents and taking away space for opposing forwards.  He takes the bulk of the Blues' important draws, and is one of the best penalty killing centers around.  Offensively, he is no slouch either.  He put up 57 points, and finished the regular season as a +14 skater.  I expect him to maintain these stats and help the team make a more successful playoff push this season.


Tuesday 23 September 2014

NHL: Top Duo's

In the last couple seasons, I have been noticing that many teams have some extremely dynamic duo's.  I am looking for many of these guys to make a splash in this upcoming season.

Crosby and Kunitz:   This duo has been dominant throughout the past several years.  Crosby is probably the most dominant offensive player in the game; hands down.  He has won countless awards, and is considered the best by many of his peers.  Kunitz has found a home playing on the wing with Sid.  Kunitz is definitely a great complimentary player who even found his way onto team Canada this year, playing alongside Crosby.  The one flaw with this duo is the simple fact that Crosby dominates the stat category.  Kunitz is often criticized for not matching Crosby's point production.  Last year alone, Crosby put up nearly 40 more points than Kunitz while playing on the same line.  Regardless, the two will not likely be split apart anytime soon and should once again be a dangerous duo come regular season.

Toews and Kane: These two guys have become the face of the Chicago Blackhawks.  The two young forwards have just re-signed with the team for 10+ million dollars per season.  These deals are long term and it appears that Chicago will keep these guys as the team's core.  Captain; Johnathan Toews is just 26 and has already won every possible team accolade in the sport, including a Stanley Cup, an Olympic gold as well as a World Junior Gold.  His partner in crime; Patrick Kane, has made a reputation for his flashy moves and ability to come up huge when the game is on the line.  They scored only 69 and 68 points a piece last season, but they have already won Stanley's Cup twice in their short careers'.  The success of the team is one of the main reasons why these two shine so brightly.  They have led the team into the elite of the West, and they should carry the Hawks to another strong season.

Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry: This Anaheim duo is looking to challenge for top duo once again this season.  They both have averaged roughly a point per game for the last several seasons and will once again look to break 80 points a piece.  These two guys play a much different style than many on this list.  They both like to play physical and are known for being gritty.  Getzlaf beat Perry by 5 points last season, but many consider Perry to be the stronger offensive threat.  Many fantasy owners are considering Perry the best multi-category forward available this year.  I am expecting these guys to carry the team once again this year.  However, this year they might be a little stronger all around as the Ducks seem to be surrounding them with a somewhat decent roster.  

Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin:  This duo is a relatively new superpower in the West.  Nonetheless, they have literally carried the teams entire offence.  Last season, they both scored over 30 goals.The next highest goal total for another Star player was 17.  Without them, I believe that Dallas would be living the the basement of the West.  The pair combined for 161 games, and 163 points last season.  I expect them both top exceed 80 and have a strong year all around.  Young line mate Valeri Nichushkin seeems to be developing very well for his age.  The kid is a monstrous winger and will help open up space with Jamie Benn.  I know we are talking about duo's, but up until lately, the pair have not had anybody to play with.  This should only help them prosper as a line.  

Henrik and Daniel Sedin: These guys are an often overlooked of late.  They seemed to have hit their prime during the 2010-11 seasons, and just kind of faded from that point,  In that season, Daniel put up 104 points, and Henrik racked up 94.  Plain and simple, when Vancouver is rolling, these guys are rolling.  This was the same year that the Canucks had some depth down the lineup.  Kesler was scoring, and the Canucks Defense was dominant.  For the first time in three years, the Canucks are coming into a season looking great.  They have added some pieces, and the Sedins should see a lot more opportunities for good match-ups.  With new management and proper coaching, the two should see limited minutes, but in prime situations.  I can honestly say that I am expecting 70+ points each from these guys.  I believe that the Canucks will shock the West this year and make a push for the top 6 in the Conference.  

Missed the Cut:

Richards and Carter

Datsyuk and Zetterberg


Saturday 20 September 2014

NHL Cheerleaders

For years, the NHL has been the only major North American sports league without cheer-leading at the games.  This of course, was due to the fact that cheerleaders tend to wear very little clothing and hockey rinks are generally freezing cold.  However, in modern day hockey many NHL franchises have introduced cheerleaders into the stadium.  They are paid promoters for the team, and act very similarly to any other type of cheerleader, minus the daredevil stunts.  The league has even gone as far as to introduce attractive female ice attendants, known to many fans as " puck bunnies."

For the most part, it seems as if the idea has caught on in many non-traditional hockey markets.  This is an obvious effort to copy the success of   NFL and MLB teams in these areas.  Teams based in Southern states, as well as California have jumped onto the cheer-leading bandwagon, and the girls can be seen at literally every game.  

Despite obvious equality issues with this behavior, many teams have found that this technique is successful.  Almost every team around has female ice attendants who will clean/repair the ice during brief intermissions of the game.  These girls draw a lot of attention, and are fan favorites for many of the intoxicated male fans.  They are a also a great distraction when the home team is struggling.  As the years progress, I believe that many of the more hesitant teams will jump on boards.  Entertainment during intermissions is a huge issue on hockey, as certain teams still struggle to bring fans into the stadium.  Non-traditional hockey markets are becoming very similar to the MLB, as they look for creative new ways to keep fans entertained while the game is delayed.  All in all, it seems to be an idea that continues to grow and flourish around the league.  I look forward to seeing what teams come up with this upcoming season.  

Please comment below with your opinion!!

Friday 19 September 2014

NHL Fantasy: Early Injuries

Penguins:  With the season starting in under a month, the Penguins are really just looking to keep injuries to a minimum.  Reports say that both Crosby and Malkin will be taking precautionary measures this pre-season to prevent any long term injuries.  From what I have heard, they have been training together at a very extreme pace for most of the summer.  Coming into pre-season, the team has decided to give them both a break to ensure that they are ready for the regular season.  As of right now, there's nothing to worry about with these guys.  I would not consider them any less valuable on a fantasy league team.  This however, does not apply to youngster Olli Maata.  He is coming off of shoulder surgery in late July and has just started to practice with light contact.  To edge on the side of caution, the team will likely have him sidelined to start the season.  If you have other options, try to avoid this guy in your draft.



Goalies:  J-Quick is coming off of wrist surgery, but is expected to be ready for the regular season.  If the recovery is prolonged, I may take a look into skipping him for Rask or another top goalie.  Honestly though, I would not worry too much unless something drastic delays his recovery.  If he misses any time, it will only be a few games.

                 Josh Harding of the Minesota Wild finds himself stuck on the injury boat to start the season.  He broke his foot apparently kicking a wall.  I have not read into this matter much, but it seems as if he will miss a good chunk of time to start the year.  In my books, he is pretty much done as far as fantasy goalies are concerned.  His value just plummeted, and don't expect him to return to top form any time this year.


            Ben Bishop is coming off of a seemingly minor surgery on his elbow/forearm.  Various reports have been released, and the general consensus is that he will likely not be completely recovered for the start of the season.  This is a guy I would keep an eye on.  If healthy, I would give him serious considerations for a top goalie.  He easily makes the top ten list for my fantasy goaltenders.


Daniel Alfredsson:  Alfie looks like he may be retiring earlier than we expected.  He strained his back just two days ago, and he has not released any information to the media quite yet.  Reports say that he was not attending many activities during this seasons training camp.  From what I can tell, he will likely be hanging up the skates soon.  I would avoid him this season and possibly go with a young gun if you really want a good Red Wing forward.  Thomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist might be good players to draft late if given the chance.  Tatar will likely be rounding out line 2, and Nyquist is basically just a wild card at this point.  Regardless, both have talent to put up 40+ points if given enough playing time.







Tuesday 16 September 2014

NHL: Shootout

With playoff races being tighter than ever, every point is vital down the stretch.  Pulling out wins in overtime and the shootout can be the difference between golfing and Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  A lot of fans like the shootout purely based on entertainment value, but often overlook the impact those points have over an 82 game season.

For example, the New Jersey Devils managed to lose all thirteen shootouts they had last season.  The team finished in the tenth position within the East, and was 5 points back from a three way tie for the final position in the playoffs.  Hypothetically, if the Devils won just 5 of their thirteen shootouts, they would have tied both Columbus and Detroit at 93 points.  With those 5 wins, they would have reached 40 wins total which is just one win more than the Red Wings.  If this were the case, the Devils would have bumped the Red Wings into 9th and took over the final playoff spot.  Not only do these losses kill you chances of making the playoffs, but the psychological effects on the team can be demoralizing over an 82 game season.


Nashville too, fell victim to shootout woes last season.  They won just two of eleven shootouts, and fell short of the playoffs by three points.  Just like the Devils, just a few shootouts were the difference between a playoff berth and an early exit from the 2013-14 season.  Moving forward, I am sure many teams will focus much more heavily on this area of the game.  It has become a prominent aspect of the NHL, and will be for years.  The anticipation and excitement for fans is overwhelming, which makes it one of the most most exciting elements of today's game.  Individual players are allowed to showcase their talents' in a one-on-one situation which rarely occurs during a regular 60 minute game.



Thursday 11 September 2014

Toronto Maple Leafs: 2014-15 Season Preview

For the first time in a long time, I am really excited to see the Leafs play.  Being an Ontario boy, I have always kept a close eye on the team regardless of how they are playing.  Historically, they have been one of the most prominent and successful teams on and off the ice.  However, the last few seasons have not been a walk in the park for this once dominant franchise.

Regardless of the past, the Leafs are looking to bounce back this upcoming season.  They have one of the deepest forward units in the East which should help them compete with the elite Eastern Conference teams.  In the past, the leafs have primarily relied on Kessel and a small group of others to carry the teams offence.  This season should be different.  As expected, Tyler Bozak looks to be cenetering Phil kessel and James Van Riemsdyk.  The second unit consists of Clarkson, Kadri and Lupul.  This physical second unit will be able to grind down opponents defense.  If utilized properly, they will grind down opposing teams over the long haul.  After the top two lines, things get a little complicated.  I personally think that Santorelli should center David Booth and Leo Komarov.  Regardless of what people think, Mike Santorelli is an unbelievably creative player who can put up solid numbers if surrounded with complimentary wingers.  David Booth and Leo Komarov are the kinds of guys who will create a lot of space and time for Santorelli to work.  They can both get in on the defense quickly, and create turnovers down low.  That leaves Matt Frattin and Peter Holland on the fourth line. These guys could likely be paired up with Daniel Winnick.  These last two lines are going to be a tough decision for the coaching staff as they also have Petri Kontiola who was just signed this year from the Finiish elite league.  Regardless of who makes the cut, those bottom two lines should be dangerous all season long.

Defensively, the team seems to have the top six pretty well decided.  The four returning Leafs are made up of captain Dion Phaneuf, Jake Gardiner, Cody Franson and Morgan Rielly.  There's also two newcomers to the team.  This includes Defensive specialist Roman Polak, and Stephane Robidas.  Robidas has a well-rounded game and will likely start on the top pair with Phaneuf.  His experience will allow him to log big minutes without being a liability defensively.  Despite being underutilized in the past, I believe that Franson will be playing some big minutes on the second unit with Jake Gardiner.  Morgan Rielly and Roman Polak will round out the last pair, but will likely be split up during special teams situations.  Overall, the team has six solid defense with a wide variety of skills.  This should prove to be vital as many of these guys have had success on special teams, whether it be power-play or penalty kill.  The one key element of the Leafs defense is the simple fact they they have 3 right-handed guys, and three left-handed guys.  This should help the Leafs' back end move the puck quickly in the offensive zone to open up some shooting lanes.

On the back end, the Leafs will have Johnathan Bernier and James Reimer once again.  It looks like Bernier will be the number one for the team, and Reimer will start the season as backup.    The East is littered with elite goalies, including the likes of Carey Price, Tuuka Rask and Henrik Lundqvist.  Toronto does not have the luxury of a star goaltender, but they do have two solid goalies who are both capable of catching fire at any point in the season.  Bernier is a good goalie who will put up great numbers if the Leafs defense can avoid costly turnovers and botched defensive assignments.

At the end of the day, every position looks strong coming into the 2014-15 season.  They have the roster to put up good numbers in the regular season, and potentially make a push in the playoffs.  I am expecting the leafs to sneak into the playoffs this year, possibly wrapping up a 7th or 8th spot in the East.We should see another big season from Phil Kessel, who will be expected to lead the team offensively.  I also look forward to see Phaneuf get back to his old form.  Given the situation, I believe all the pieces are in place for these guys to succeed.



Wednesday 10 September 2014

NHL and Advanced Statistics ( Corsi-Number)

The NHL has developed in many ways over the past ten or so seasons.  We have seen rule changes, lockout seasons, and even several unfortunate events which resulted in the loss of some great individuals.  However, one thing that has not changed is the importance of numbers and statistics.

We have come so far from the days where the only stat that counted was a teams' record.  In modern day hockey, we have seen an incredible revolution in hockey statistics.  The value and application of these stats have proven crucial to the game.  When it comes down to it, even hockey is a game of averages and percentages.  If utilized correctly, a team can theoretically maximize their chances of winning.  Of course these systems are far from perfect, but they have proven to be crucial in analyzing an individual's value.  For example; baseball is undoubtedly a game of numbers. Going late into the game, a manager will occasionally change out a pitcher for just one batter.  Sometimes you will hear people questioning the move, and wondering why he would make that change.  The answer is simple, that batter is statistically less likely to get a hit off certain pitchers.  I did some research to prove this point and I found that Ted Williams hit only 12% of his home runs off of left handed pitchers.  Babe Ruth hit only 30%, and Duke Snider hit a measly 8%.  When given those numbers, it seems stupid to NOT make that change.

The same exact thing happens in hockey, except slightly less focus is placed on match ups.  Do not get me wrong, match-ups are key.  However, most of these modern hockey statistics are used to identify hidden information which can help to understand why a team is performing a certain way. I guess it would make sense to use the most talked about modern statistic, the Corsi-Number.

Essentially, each individual player receives a score based on their even-strength play.  This score is very similar to a plus / minus rating, except the score itself is determined by how many shots are directed at the net while that player is on the ice.  This includes shots on net, missed shots, and blocked shots.  Any shot that is directed at one's own net is a minus, and any shots directed at the opponent is of course, a plus.  If you are still somewhat new to the stat, various websites will provide some great info for you.

What stats like this do is break down the game into a very organized set of numbers.  Each and every player earns these statistics, and it helps coaches as well as General Managers make important decisions.  On a very basic level, it is obvious that teams who get more shots win more games.  It is a very basic law of averages, but it can be over-looked.  What the Corsi number does is analyse the score of each individual on the team.  All a coach has to do is take that number, and locate which guys are struggling the most.  Most good coaches will make some slight adjustments to get the team average up.  All of a sudden, each line is maximizing shots for and drastically reducing shots against ( in theory ).

I was scanning through some of the Corsi stats online and it can be a real pain to find.  However, the hockeyanalysis.com website does have a variety of different versions of the classic Corsi-number.  From what I have seen, certain teams have a lot of individuals making the list compared to others.  For example, the LA Kings slaughtered the competition with regards to Corsi and other related statistics.  Over the past two seasons, the Kings have ten players who made the top 100 list for Corsi ratings.  This includes depth players like Jake Muzzin, Dwight King, and Roby Regehr.  I almost expected Kopitar, Doughty and other top tier players to make the cut, but seeing a lot of depth guys is quite surprising.  None of these individuals are known for shooting the puck.  In fact, many of them are role players who focus primarily on making the smart play and limiting time in the defensive zone.  Nonetheless, these stats are vitally important for the Kings coaching staff as they plan to maintain the same level of success moving forward.  


 

Tuesday 9 September 2014

Salary Cap Strategies of the NHL : Colorado Avalanche

I have been doing a lot of research on Western Conference teams lately.  Simply because teams like Minnesota and Colorado have become very talented in such a short time.  Today, I want to assess the Avalanche roster as they have certain salary cap traits which have not been attempted since the Red Wings in the early 2000's.

Essentially, the entire concept is to take your best player and sign him to a long term deal.  When doing so, the GM makes that particular amount of money the most any individual can make on the team.  When the Red Wings did it back in the early 2000s, they had phenomenal success as all the players took moderate pay cuts in an effort to strengthen the team.  In turn, they had a dominant lineup for years, and had ample amounts of money to spend on their depth players.  

Currently, the Avalanche have Matt Duchene signed until the end of the 2019-20 season at six million dollars annually.  I know it seems like a lot of money for a twenty three year old kid.  However, he already has an Olympic gold, a World Junior Gold, and produces roughly a point per game.  Consider the fact that Patrick Kane and Johnathan Toews are now making over 10 million dollars a season in Chicago.  These are two players who have been in the league a few years more than Duchene, but followed a nearly identical path and put up very similar offensive numbers.  By the end of this season, Duchene could theoretically be worth 8 or 9 million dollars.

With that considered, it makes it very difficult for any other player on the Avalanche to demand anything more than six million dollars.  Imagine in a few years, when Nathan Mackinnon is entering his prime.  If things go as planned, the Avalanche will have Duchene, Mackinnon and Landeskog signed long term for just under 18 million dollars a season.  In free agency, most of these guys would pull in contracts from other teams worth 7-8 million dollars.  This is where I find the only flaw in the system.  It is my strong belief that Mackinnon will be a better player than Duchene will ever be, and that is not to take anything away from Duchene.  It is only a matter of time, but I believe that two years from now, we may see the Avalanche struggle to sign Mackinnon for 6 million as his value is going to be through the roof.  Nonetheless, it is a bold strategy and it has paid off thus far.  Signing Mackinnon will be crucial to the long term success of the team.  If they pull it off, expect the Avalanche to be dominant once again.      


Back in the mid 2000s, the Red Wings perfected this strategy.  A shocking number of long term Red Wings bought into the team concept and pulled off two Stanley Cup Wins in both 2002 and 2008.  Some key players during this time were guys like Brendan Shannahan, Steve Yzerman, Pavel Datsyuk, Thoman Holmstrom and Henrik Zetterberg.  All of these players have been with the team basically their entire career, and it proves that the strategy has legitimacy.  Despite the legendary status of many of these players, we sometimes forget that Nicklas Lidstrom was the invisible guideline which set the standard for Red Wing contracts.  

I guess now we are left with the question; Can it work for the Avalanche in the modern day NHL?

Thoughts... 




Monday 8 September 2014

NHL Expansion Rumors

If any of you are NHL fans, you probably heard the various rumors swirling around regarding some potential expansions teams sprouting up.  Frankly, I am somewhat surprised by these ridiculous speculations.  How can commissioner Gary Bettman even consider adding teams to the league when so many are failing.  I think that many hockey fans would be shocked by the financial failures of many "successful teams."  I have no idea how this ever got so bad, but if I was Gary Bettman; I would start by addressing the financial disaster which is the Arizona Coyotes and other teams of that nature.  

If it was not for Rogers basically buying the entire league's broadcasting rights', teams like Arizona would be out of luck.  Rogers essentially controls everything now, and is obviously going to limit what CBC and TSN are able to do.  Essentially, the contract will put more focus on teams in the United States than ever before.  Games will be more readily available, and hopefully it can generate a larger fan base for teams playing in non-traditional hockey markets.  Don't get me wrong, the contract is enormous for the league.  However, it just seems like another piece to the puzzle for Gary Bettman.  Intentional or not, the guy works solely for himself and the United States.  He is completely close-minded to any ideas that would involve the relocation of an American team, regardless of how much money the league pays to keep it afloat.  

It is beyond me how Arizona has lasted this long as an NHL franchise.  They honestly have no fans!  Players do not want to play there because the city could not care less about the league, or even the sport.  I can guarantee you that over half of the state cannot name a single player on that team.  The entire well being of that franchise is botched, yet Bettman still insists that they cost the league 30 million a season.  Of course, that is no big deal as Bettman can simply use the revenue generated by the Maple Leafs to cover that loss.  

Now, there's even talk that the league will consider slapping down a new franchise literally right beside the Maple Leafs.  If Bettman opened his eyes, he would see that nearly 99% of all Ontario citizens do not want another team in Ontario.  We already support two teams, and Bettman should have a little bit of respect in this matter.  I am completely open for trying out a team in Seattle or possibly Quebec City.  However, I do not approve of expanding the league by four teams, as projected!  Why does Bettman not simply take Arizona and haul them up North to a real hockey market and see if the team can succeed.  I can guarantee you that the team will instantly improve financially in a Northern location, whether it be Canada or the U.S.


Sunday 7 September 2014

NHL: Canucks Push Back

For the first time since the 2007-08 season, the Vancouver Canucks failed to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  I am a firm believer that this season will be an enormous building block for the team.  Long time Canuck, Trevor Linden rejoined the team recently, not as a player, but as President of Hockey Operations.  From the get go, Linden has made it clear that he wants to completely restructure the definition of Canuck hockey.  Changes came immediately, as the organization relieved both John Tortorella and Mike Gillis from their duties as Head Coach and GM respectively.

At first, many Canuck fans including myself were tentative in buying into these changes.  Benning is a relatively quiet guy, and most fans knew little about him.  I was personally shocked to find out that he had actually played with Linden many years back on the Canucks.  Benning was never a standout NHL player, but he seems to be handling his new role as GM quite well.  Since the start, he has worked with Linden to strengthen the Canucks roster.  He made two vital moves early on; signing Radim Vrabata and trading Ryan Kesler to the Anaheim Ducks.  For the first time in years, the Sedin twins will have a top line scorer to play with.  Getting rid of Kesler was another important move as his agent made it clear that they were pursuing a change.  With media attention already swirling around the team, avoiding further controversy with their players was an easy decision.

Given the previous season, the Canucks decided that it was important to get a legitimate number one goaltender who can act as a guide for young standout, Eddie Lack.  The signing of Ryan Miller should prove to solidify the goalie position.  There is no question about goaltending now, as both Miller and Lack are comfortable with the roles they have been assigned.  Keeping Lack appears to be part of Benning's plan to sustain that internal competition at every position.  Benning clearly intends on building a team internally through smart drafting and development of young players.

For the first time in several years, the Canucks came out of the draft looking great.  Out of every single team this year, the Canucks may have had the best draft based on their position.  First round pick, Jake Virtanen is a clear indication of where the team wants to go.  He is a powerful skater who goes through defenders.  He is dangerous from everywhere on the ice, and brings an edge that the Canucks roster has not seen in years.  Expect new Canucks coach; Willie Desjardins to buy into Benning's ideas. They will be pushing youth into the system in an effort to create internal competition.  The Canucks do not have the luxury of a deep pool of young stars, but they do have numerous players who are closing in on cracking the roster.

I am personally a little concerned with the youth talent.  All of our strong young guys are still in the midst of development, and Benning has made it clear that they will not be playing on the NHL team unless they are physically and mentally prepared.  Top prospects Bo Horvat, Hunter Shinkaruk, and Jake Virtanen are still very young and are a long shot this year.  Our only young guys who have a good shot at making the team are individuals who have had a shot before, but have not succeeded.  Jordan Scroeder was one of those guys that Canucks fans were expecting to put up big numbers for us.  However, he is already 23 and is still struggling to find that extra gear he needs to succeed at a top level.  I expect Scroeder, Brendan Gaunce and Frank Corrado to bounce around between the AHL and the NHL depending on injuries and other variables.


If you are a Canucks fun, do not expect these off-season pickups to completely turn the team around.  We should make a decent push at one of the later playoff positions, but it will be a struggle.  The Canucks have to jump four full spots in the west this season if they want any chance of making the post-season.  Teams like Dallas, Winnipeg, Phoenix and Minesota are looking to make a push for that final spot as well.  It is not impossible, but the Canucks are going to have to bounce back immediately and start strong early on this season.

Saturday 6 September 2014

Anaheim Ducks - Moving into the 2014-15 season

The Anaheim Ducks are coming off one of the best seasons in team history with regards to regular season wins. They finished second in the league behind only Boston, who edged them out by one point. They ended up winning their first round matchup vs Dallas (4-2), but were eventually defeated in round two by the Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings. 
The key to the Ducks success is the incredible consistency throughout the lineup. At first glance, people just see the massive point totals coming from the Ducks’ Superstars – Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. What most people do not notice is the ridiculously high +/- stats contributed by nearly every player in the lineup. 
Some key role players for Anaheim have put up mediocre numbers with regards to point production, but have done exceptionally well at keeping the puck out of their own net. For example, Dustin Penner put up a decent 32 points, but maintained a +22 during the season. Hampus Lindholm put up 30 points, and nearly matched that total in +/- with a +29. This is maintained throughout the lineup, and is proving to be the new model for modern day NHL teams who want to be successful.

Advanced sport statisticiansknow that production needs to be consistent throughout the lineup if one wants to maintain a successful team. If we look a little closer, we can see evidence of this on every one of the successful NHL teams in today’s league. 
The value of two way forwards, and consistent defensemen has skyrocketed as GMs around the league need to fight for solid role players. Players like David Bolland are benefiting significantly from this new system. He can win face-offs, hit, kill penalties and chip in offensively. He will not score 40 goals a season, maybe not even 20. However, he signed a 5 year, 27 million dollar deal because he has such a strong all-around game. 
This style of team building is not easy, however. Progressing into 2014-15, we see the Ducks making some bold moves to solidify themselves in the West. I believe the series loss against Los Angeles last year was the reason Bob Murray made the moves he did. 

In an effort to add some more firepower to his lineup, the Ducks traded for Ryan Kesler from the Vancouver Canucks. When healthy, Kesler can easily put up 20-30 goals a season. The one enormous downfall to this deal is the fact that Kesler is an inconsistent and streaky scorer who has had injury trouble in the past. If Kesler stays healthy, he will likely be top 3 on the team in nearly every offensive category. 
On the other hand, Kesler brings in 5 million dollars against the salary cap, and the Ducks were forced to trade away Luca Sbisa as well as as Nick Bonino. 
Bonino is getting paid just under 2 million dollars a season for the next three years. Given his production last year, he may be the best bargain player in the league. He potted 22 goals and 27 assists last year in Anaheim, putting him third on the team in point production. It is hard to say who won the trade, and only time will tell. 

I believe that Bob Murray and his Ducks will be one of the dominant NHL teams in the West for some time. Don’t expect them to take the number one spot in the west again, however. 
Teams like Los Angeles and Chicago will likely overtake the Ducks, as they are once agin lack experience in goal. Anderson is too young and inexperienced to be the number one goalie in a seriously talented Western Conference. By the looks of it, he will be expected to start the majority of the games this year. This can be a tall task and an important test for the young goaltender moving forward. 
It will be a struggle, but look for Anaheim to finish anywhere from 2-4 in the West. As of now I have them in the 3 spot behind Los Angeles and Chicago.

Thursday 4 September 2014

Yahoo - NHL Fantasy Drafting

Yahoo Sports has become a serious player within the sports world.  They offer fantasy play for all the professional leagues in North America, and the NHL is no different.  They offer a very engaging and appealing live draft experience, in which users can control the regulations within their league.  The head-to-head style of play seems to be the most popular, and involves weekly match-ups between individuals.  The winner of this match-up is determined by several categories, which can include points, goals, assists, face-offs, hits, etc.  Nearly every player statistic can become a category within this pool type; Which can create a very interesting draft.  Most serious fantasy leagues include statistics such as face-offs, hits and blocked shots.  The inclusion of these statistics makes it much more difficult for users to select players come draft day.  All of a sudden, typically overlooked players will become highly sought after commodities.  Each pick becomes more strategic, and users need to take into account many elements when deciding who will fit best on their fantasy squad.

Research - Unfortunately for all of you lazy fantasy owners out there, you are going to have to do some work if you are going to play in the yahoo fantasy leagues.  The only way you can win is by building a balanced team that will make you competitive in all statistical categories.

Tip #1:  Draft players from good teams!  This will be crucial down the stretch, as bad teams often result in bad numbers for your players.  Avoid teams like Calgary, Buffalo and Winnipeg if at all possible.  These teams have some standout players, but they will not get you the points you need playing on that roster.  Winnipeg has some good picks, but smart fantasy owners will avoid these guys as they play in an extremely stacked Western division.  If you draft the high majority of your players from elite teams, you will almost guarantee yourself a spot atop the +/- category every week.  Do not take a hit in the fantasy ranks because you drafted your favorite player, or a guy from your hometown team.  Draft smart, win big.

Tip #2:  Be a scout!  Every smart manager knows the talent for the upcoming years well before most fans.  A smart fantasy owner will keep his or her eye on players who are looking to break out with a monster season.  This is obviously key when you are selecting late round picks.  Often you will see rookie fantasy owners take runs at heavily spotlighted young stars like Johnathan Drouin for example.  A lot of guys will be looking to pick up the kid, even though many know it is a huge gamble.  Myself, on the other hand; Look towards guys who have a year or two under their belt.  Players moving into their second or third year are usually the best bet for a strong "sleeper pick."
I hate to give away some of my top young guns, but I will throw a few names your way.  One pick that should be a guarantee for 50 points is Reilly Smith.  He put up 51 points last season at the age of 23, and will once again be playing with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand.  This guy is a steal in the late rounds.

Tip #3: Draft smart, review the surrounding talent of the player you are considering.  This all needs to be done in advance, so it is vital that you do some research.  Many fantasy owners draft based on the reputation of the team and the player himself, which can be good.  However, paying attention to surrounding talent and potential line-mates is huge.  You need to know what to expect from a player going into a season.  Will he be playing on the top line, second line, or third line?  Is there room for that player on the teams' power-play?  If you take the stats from last season, and then review any roster moves; You should be able to get an idea as to where that player sits.  If you want, tonnes of information can be found online for projected starting day line-ups.  Try to draft guys who will be surrounded with talent.  It will only make him that much more likely to pick up points, especially if he is putting up big minutes.  Keep an eye on the power-play unit for that team.  A large chunk of points comes from the power-play in modern day NHL.


Anyway, those are some quick tips on how to crush everyone in your Yahoo fantasy league.  If you want to see some awesome sleeper picks, simply check out my other post titled " My Fantasy Sleeper Picks - NHL."  Some of these guys may not be suited for your particular league, depending on the rules.  However, most picks are pretty well-rounded guys who will be overlooked by most fantasy owners.  Be smart, keep them on your radar.

When in your Yahoo fantasy league, check out " my team" at the top of the page and go down to "watch list."  This will prove useful come draft day.  





     

Tuesday 2 September 2014

My Fantasy Sleeper Picks - NHL

Hey guys, I figured that I would just put an article on here so all the plugs in my pool last year can steal all my picks since I won't be mopping the floor with you this year.  Regardless, if anyone out there likes to do fantasy pools; This might offer some cool tips.  I know the nhl.com guys like to post their top 10's, but they are pretty terrible and I think these will be better picks.  I am just kind of going with the flow here, so there's no real order to this top ten.

10- Christian Ehrhoff:  Ehrhoff is not going to win any awards for his play in the defensive end.  However, the guy can really put up the points if he is given the chance to display his offensive ability.  Playing with Vancouver in 09-10, he put up 44 points.  Following that stellar season, he came back with a 50 point performance before heading to Buffalo.  Ehrhoff will be playing on a very similar team in Pittsburgh this upcoming season.  They have ridiculous offensive talents, and Ehrhoff will likely pile up minutes on the Powerplay.   If he stays healthy, look for him to surpass the 40 point mark.

9- Sergei Bobrovsky: Bobrovsky is one of those goalies who probably won't be chosen by many fantasy owners this year.  Plain and simple, Bobrovsky has been playing on teams who haven't been winning enough games to properly showcase his talent.  He had a couple rough years in Philadelphia, but the 25 year old goaltender is really settling in with Columbus.  He put up a record of 53-31-11 in his past two seasons, and had a stellar .927 save %.  Moving forward, the Blue Jackets will be stronger and look for them to be a serious contender this year.  Look for Bobrovsky to put up 35+ wins this season.

8- Gustav Nyquist: Nyquist is a player that will not be a "sleeper pick" for much longer.  He is currently on the radar for many fantasy owners, but is still quite underrated.  If you can get this guy late, do not hesitate to pick him up.  Up until 2013-14, he had not done much at the NHL level.  However, the 25 year old right-winger put up a solid 48 points in only 57 games; 28 of which were goals.  If Nyquist can settle into a position on the top two lines, expect some serious production from him.  After last season, he will be a shoe in for a spot on the second powerplay unit.  The Red Wings have some solid scorers up front, but that second powerplay team needs a guy who can shoot the puck and challenge opposing goaltenders.  Look for Nyquist to break the 50 point mark if he gets a spot on that second line.

7- Valeri Nichushkin: For fantasy owners, this guy might be just what you need if you do not want to invest a lot into a Dallas forward.  Picking up Jamie Benn or Tyler Seguin might be tough as their values' have skyrocketed lately.  However, young Nichushkin might be the next best thing.  He put up 34 points as an 18 year old last year, averaging roughly 13 minutes per game.  This kid will develop into a great player, we just don't know when.  Nichushkin has been practicing extensively with the Seguin and Benn line this off-season, and is projected to start with them opening day.  He is an enormous kid at 6-4, 205, and will create a lot of havoc down low playing with Jamie Benn.  His size and scoring ability will translate into more minutes on the Power-play as well.  Look for him to get around 50 points this year.

6- Jiri Tlusty: This guy is going to be this years definition of a fantasy sleeper.  He is not going to win any awards for his scoring ability, but he has proven that he can put up solid numbers when he is in the line-up.  He has had some injury trouble in the past, but he is coming into this season looking great.  Sources say that he has improved his skating and conditioning this off-season, and will be poised and ready to play alongside Eric Staal and Alex Semin.  If healthy, we might see the winger bridge the 50 point mark for the first time in his career.  However,  I am anticipating a 40-45 point performance from the guy.

5- Justin Faulk - Faulk is not a goal scoring defenseman by any means, but he will put up decent points with the Hurricanes this year.  Matt Cubeta on nhl.com pointed out the similarities in point production between Faulk and Cam Fowler over the last three seasons.  Surprisingly, they are nearly identical.  The difference for Faulk, is the simple fact that he plays on a team that is often overlooked by fantasy owners.  He should see a slight increase in points, as the team is looking better offensively.  Expect Faulk to lead the way for Carolina defenceman, putting up about 35-40 points. ( Almost all of which will be assists).

4- David Booth: Booth might be the most likely candidate for a bounce back season this year.  Let's face it; Booth had a rough time in Vancouver last couple of years.  The entire Vancouver team has had struggles last few seasons, and the spotlight on the team caused a serious downward spiral for everyone, Booth included.  However, Booth is now making a fresh start in the East with the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Booth had his best success in the Eastern conference, with Florida several years ago.  In his early twenties, Booth reached the 40 point mark twice, and even conquered 60 points in 2008-09.  Look for Booth to flourish on one of the top lines in Toronto.  His speed and size will make him a perfect fit for the team.  Look for Booth to get 15+ goals and 20+ assists this year.  I think that if Booth stays healthy, he can reach the 40 point mark once again.

3- Reilly Smith:  Smith made a home on the Bruins "second" line last season, playing a lot of minutes along side Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand.  He was occasionally shifted to the first line when necessary, which definitely showed how much head coach, Claude Julien trusted the young winger.  At the tender age of 23, Smith looks to become a serious impact player in his second full NHL season.  Smith will help any fantasy owner in nearly all categories, as he plays well in both ends of the ice.  Last year he finished the season with a +28 rating, combined with 51 points.  Look for similar numbers this year, as the Bruins will once again finish the season atop the Eastern Conference.

2- Mikael Granlund: I was a tad hesitant to put Granlund in the mix, but there have been numerous rumors flying around that natural center Charlie Coyle will be playing the right wing this season.  This of course, leaves Granlund as a write in for the second center position.  The Wild coaching staff have Granlund centering Thomas Vanek, as Granlund is one of the best play makers on the team.  .  Granlund put up 41 points in only 63 games last season, and Vanek will only help his point production.  Many Minesota players will be taken early on, which will only leave a select few.  Granlund is an easy late pick as he will put up big minutes this season; a lot of which will come on the power play.  Look for him to get 50+ points this season.

1- Vladimir Tarasenko: Coming into the 2014-15 season, the St. Louis Blues have high hopes for the young Russian. Minus a few missed games last year, the 22 year old really came into his own putting up 43 points in only 64 games.  He showcased his laser of a wrist shot in the playoffs, putting up 4 goals in 6 games.  This year he is looking to be a catalyst for the Blues offence.  He will be starting the season on the second line with Paul Stasny and Jaden Schwartz.  Stasny is a guy who most fantasy owners will have their eye on.  If he is available, Tarasenko would be a great guy to supplement your fantasy teams' offence.  He has a killer shot, and will likely put up monster minutes on the Blues power-play.      




Ondrej Palat:  23 year old left wing for Tampa Bay.
                        Last Season:   81 Games Played;  23 Goals;  36 Assists  ;  59 Points ;  +32


I completely forgot about this guy, but I thought I would include him late rather than go back and take somebody else off the list.  Palat is going to get huge minutes again this year in Tampa.  Do not overlook his value.  He will rack up the minutes and likely play quite a bit alongside Steven Stamkos.

Honorable mentions:  Most of these guys are not sleeper picks, but rather just great value players.

Radim Vrabata:  Likely to have great numbers playing with the Sedin twins in Vancouver.

Brad Richards:  He should flourish in Chicago as they are already very dangerous offensively.

Jakub Varacek:  Consistent point producer in Philadelphia.  Often overlooked in fantasy pools.

Ryan Johansen:  Top center for Columbus.  He will be their most dangerous player this season.

Frans Nielson:  Horrible defensive player, but he can put up points for your fantasy team.

Bryan Little: Little has the potential to breakout and put up 20+ goals if everything pans out.